It was all so different five months ago- Alvaro Colom looked like he was going to walk it. Now with less than a month out from the first round of the Guatemalan elections, it's anyone's guess. Although Otto Pérez Molina is predicted to be at least 10 percentage points off the pace in the first round, it all changes with forecasts for a second round run off between Pérez Molina and Colom. The gap narrows to just 2 percentage points- Colom is first with 41.4 per cent, followed by Pérez Molina with 39.3 per cent.
This has been reported by Angus-Reid- their source is Demoscopía/Siglo XXI. The methodology: was interviews to 1,216 Guatemalan adults, conducted from Jul. 29 to Aug. 8, 2007. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.
A previous opinion poll published by Prensa Libre 25-07-2007 showed much the same distribution of votes for first round and second round- but incredibly- included around 40% of people polled who said they didn't know, hadn't decided, didn't want to vote for any candidate or wanted to keep their vote secret. However, in this latest poll published by Siglo XXI the don't knows, not decideds, keep secrets is only 15.3%. Are more people deciding who to vote for? Or is this just reflecting a difference in the methodology of the pollsters?
Either way it points to a potential surprise on the real polling day.
Background
Siglo XXI opinion poll (15-08-07)
Prensa Libre opinion poll (25-07-07)
This has been reported by Angus-Reid- their source is Demoscopía/Siglo XXI. The methodology: was interviews to 1,216 Guatemalan adults, conducted from Jul. 29 to Aug. 8, 2007. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.
A previous opinion poll published by Prensa Libre 25-07-2007 showed much the same distribution of votes for first round and second round- but incredibly- included around 40% of people polled who said they didn't know, hadn't decided, didn't want to vote for any candidate or wanted to keep their vote secret. However, in this latest poll published by Siglo XXI the don't knows, not decideds, keep secrets is only 15.3%. Are more people deciding who to vote for? Or is this just reflecting a difference in the methodology of the pollsters?
Either way it points to a potential surprise on the real polling day.
Background
Siglo XXI opinion poll (15-08-07)
Prensa Libre opinion poll (25-07-07)
